Bernstein analyst defended ASML's valuation as AI-driven capex sustained multi-year EUV tool demand and pricing power.

Bernstein raised its price target for ASML to €2,300 from €1,700, maintaining an Outperform rating while lifting its target multiple to 40x earnings from 35x—a level the firm described as one standard deviation above the historical mean. The move came as ASML fell 0.99% in Amsterdam trading.

The firm materially increased its topline forecasts, citing what it called an "unprecedented AI-driven expansion in both advanced logic and DRAM capacity." EUV shipment forecasts moved to 91 units in 2027 from 86, and to 113 in 2028 from 87. With EUV revenue now seen compounding at 30% annually, the firm projects it will reach €42.7 billion by 2030—more than 30% above consensus. Total ASML revenue is projected at €80 billion by 2030, a 24% premium to the street consensus of €64 billion.

Bernstein expects memory chipmakers to lead the adoption of High-NA EUV technology ahead of logic manufacturers, given DRAM's smaller die size and single-mask requirement. The firm forecasts SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics will adopt High-NA in DRAM production in 2027, followed by Intel in logic in 2028, Samsung in logic in 2029, and TSMC in 2030.