Nvidia's Q3 FY2026 earnings will be driven by Blackwell GPU production ramp accelerating datacenter revenue growth.
NVIDIA is scheduled to report its third quarter (Q3) earnings for financial year (FY) 2026 on Wednesday 19 November 2025, after the market closes. Building on strong momentum from its second quarter (Q2) FY2026 earnings released on 27 August 2025, the company is expected to deliver $54 billion in revenue with continued dominance in the artificial intelligence chip market. NVIDIA's Q2 results highlighted strong year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter gains driven by AI-related compute and networking sales, though a slight miss in data centre revenue and ongoing United States–China export restrictions tempered enthusiasm and led to a muted share price reaction.
At the heart of NVIDIA's success is its Blackwell architecture, which chief executive officer Jensen Huang described as "the AI platform the world has been waiting for, delivering an exceptional generational leap – production of Blackwell Ultra is ramping at full speed, and demand is extraordinary." NVIDIA's board also authorised an additional $60 billion in share repurchases, with $9.7 billion executed in Q2, underscoring confidence in long-term value creation. For Q3, the company's guidance points to strong growth with Blackwell Ultra deliveries expected to contribute $8–12 billion in revenue, up from Q2's $5–7 billion.
Key areas of focus for Q3 include the Blackwell ramp and supply chain, with any production delays potentially signalling risks to FY2027 growth. China exposure remains significant following Q2's $4.5 billion H20 write-down, though guidance excludes China H20 shipments, with Huang stating "zero share" in the market. Beyond data centre, expected to represent 88–90% of revenue, gaming and automotive should provide diversification, while sovereign AI deals and enterprise inference could surprise positively. Wall Street is eyeing $61.29 billion for Q4 2026 revenue with data centre expected to contribute $55.78 billion.
In recent months, NVIDIA has deepened its AI ecosystem through a series of financing and partnership arrangements often described as "circular deals," in which NVIDIA invests in key customers and partners who commit to significant graphics processing unit purchases. These agreements have locked in billions of dollars in forward revenue, reinforcing NVIDIA's dominance in the supply chain. For example, OpenAI has committed more than $1 trillion in AI infrastructure since mid-2025, much of which loops back to NVIDIA through direct investments and indirect chip purchases by partners such as Oracle and CoreWeave. CEO Jensen Huang has characterised these moves as strategic bets on a "multitrillion-dollar AI future," though critics argue these arrangements resemble vendor financing practices from the dot-com era and could amplify risks if AI adoption slows. CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator insists there is "nothing circular" about these transactions, arguing that hyperscalers and AI labs are simply meeting explosive compute demand with locked-in supply.
NVIDIA has a TipRanks Smart Score of "9 outperform" and is rated as a "strong buy" by analysts, with 37 "buy," 1 "hold" and 1 "sell" recommendation as of 11 November 2025. The options market prices in an implied move of approximately ±8.5% for NVIDIA's share price post-earnings, which at current levels of approximately $199 per share equates to a potential rise to $215 or a drop to $183. NVIDIA's share price rallied approximately 143% from its April low of $86.62 to its recent high of $212.19 before falling approximately 15% to last week's low of $178.91. Its rebound from $178.91 has been decisive, returning to the bullish trend channel held for seven months, with staying above trend support at $184 and the recent $178.91 low keeping the bullish structure intact and opening the door for a retest of all-time highs near $212 before resistance at $235.