ASML stated that Low-NA EUV tool productivity gains justify future price increases, potentially costing TSMC billions in extra capex if adoption mandates new scanners.

ASML is reportedly considering increasing prices of its existing Low-NA EUV lithography tools. The potential price hikes have already upset TSMC, ASML's largest client, according to reports. However, such price adjustments will not happen overnight, according to Roger Dassen, ASML's chief financial officer.

Dassen noted that ASML continues to increase the productivity of the Low-NA tool, which provides "a pretty strong runway for potential price improvements going forward." Given the long order lead times, he cautioned that "that does not translate into pricing effects tomorrow."

ASML just reported record results for its second quarter of 2026, with total net sales of €9.326 billion ($10.67 billion) and net income of €2.918 billion ($3.338 billion). The company now expects net sales between €43 billion ($49.2 billion) and €45 billion ($51.5 billion) in 2026, comfortably exceeding its own guidance and analyst expectations.

ASML has generally increased the average selling price of EUV scanners over successive generations as they increase in complexity and productivity. Early ASML Twinscan NXE systems cost roughly €100 million–€120 million ($115 million–$137 million), while later production models such as the NXE:3400C and NXE:3600D moved toward roughly €140 million–€170 million ($160 million–$195 million). The latest NXE:3800E climbs even further. High-NA EUV systems represent a major step up, at more than €350 million ($400 million) per machine, according to industry reports.

The company's concept of "value-based pricing" involves gradually increasing average selling price (ASP) based on the value that its tools provide to operators. Both productivity and performance of ASML's Twinscan NXE systems have been steadily increasing: while the NXE:3400C and NXE:3600D can process 160–170 wafers per hour (WPH) with matched machine overlay (MMO) of ≤1.1nm, the NXE:3800E and NXE:3800F increase productivity to 220 WPH and 260 WPH respectively, while improving MMO to 0.9nm. The NXE:4200G and NXE:4200H, which will likely feature an all-new light source, are expected to achieve productivity beyond 300 WPH and MMO of ≤0.8nm–≤0.7nm.

ASML's value-based pricing logic is that if an upgraded Low-NA machine processes more wafers and generates more economic value for a fab, ASML can capture part of that additional value through a higher system price. Dassen noted that "the tool mix that we are going to ship next year is a different tool mix from the tool mix that we shipped this year," with next year's EUV shipments comprising primarily NXE:3800E and NXE:3800F tools, while this year consists of a combination of NXE:3600D and NXE:3800E systems.

As the sole supplier of EUV lithography systems globally, ASML sells these machines years in advance. This year, the company expects capacity to build 65 EUV tools and intends to increase capacity by 30 percent next year to around 84–85 EUV systems. In 2028, ASML plans to produce 110 EUV scanners.

"For 2027, we are now close to being fully covered with orders for Low-NA EUV, and we are planning to increase our Low-NA EUV capacity by around 30 percent," Dassen said. "Looking ahead to 2028, we have already received a significant number of Low-NA EUV orders. Strong demand forecasts from our customers have led us to investigate a further 30 percent capacity increase for that year."

Given the strong demand for ASML's tools, the company is positioned to increase prices. Dassen stated: "Clearly, the environment that we live in today, with the substantial value that our products bring to customers, of course, gives us flexibility on pricing, more so than what you would have seen in the past. Of course, we are executing on that as well."

However, there are important constraints. When ASML receives an order that enters its reported backlog (which totaled €38.8 billion as of late Q4 2025), it already carries a contractually determined price basis. With ASML already close to fully booked for 2027 Low-NA EUV capacity and having received a significant number of Low-NA orders for 2028, much of that capacity is already represented by customer orders with associated sales values. Unless ASML can renegotiate fixed prices before delivery, it cannot hike prices on tools intended to ship in 2027 and part of 2028. This essentially means ASML can only book new orders for late 2028 and beyond at higher prices.

ASML's next-generation NXE:4200G is on track to arrive in 2029 and will be more expensive than the NXE:3800E/NXE:3800F regardless. ASML is set to continue shipping the NXE:3800-series after 2029, but the company has not confirmed whether it will adjust prices on these units shipping from 2028 onwards.

During the earnings call, ASML's financial chief implied the company would seek rewards not only for improved productivity but also for other tool improvements. Dassen explained: "We have always been able to show customers not just productivity upgrades, but also the value from better imaging, the value of better overlay, et cetera. You got this very strong correlation between throughput improvements and ASP. That is just the way things panned out, which is to say, customers were paying for the productivity upgrade, and the value that we gave them for free was the value associated with overlay improvement, imaging quality. In the current environment, with the value that we bring, we are also having conversations with customers on how we get rewarded for that additional value."

As ASML will likely not be able to hike prices on EUV tools already pre-ordered for delivery over the next two years, existing chipmakers like TSMC will not feel the effects of price increases at least over the next 24 months. That said, if ASML adjusts prices of NXE:3800-series scanners due to ship in 2028 onwards, chipmakers will not be pleased.