SK hynix projects record Q2 2026 profit driven by DRAM, NAND, and HBM demand from AI supercycle.

SK hynix is projected to announce record second-quarter operating profit of around 64 trillion won when it releases results on July 29th, according to estimates from major securities firms. This represents a dramatic improvement from first-quarter operating profit of 3.76 trillion won and reflects a rare alignment of gains across all three of its major product lines: commodity DRAM, NAND flash, and high bandwidth memory (HBM). Unlike previous cycles when HBM alone drove profitability, this quarter is being characterized as an "all-out supercycle," with prices rising simultaneously across all memory categories.

**DRAM and NAND prices lead profit improvement**

Consensus from 14 securities firms estimates second-quarter sales at approximately 84 trillion won with operating profit of 64 trillion won, translating to operating margins as high as 80%, compared to around 76% in the first quarter. Securities analysts attribute these strong results primarily to price appreciation rather than volume growth. Kyobo Securities estimated that second-quarter DRAM shipments rose only 8% quarter-over-quarter, while average selling prices jumped 36%. IBK Securities similarly estimated DRAM ASP growth at 32%.

NAND flash has benefited substantially from the expansion of global AI infrastructure. Increased demand for enterprise SSDs from North American cloud service providers' expanded AI data center investments has sharply elevated NAND prices, with estimates suggesting NAND prices rose more than 45% in the second quarter alone. Kim Dong-Won, head of research at KB Securities, noted that "as the production mix for HBM expands, the supply capacity for commodity memory will effectively remain limited," adding that "with a rising share of long-term agreements, the sales portion to big tech and AI data centers is expected to expand to 70%." The limitation on DRAM capacity devoted to HBM production is acting as a sustained price catalyst.

**Pace of transition to HBM4 will determine second-half results**

For the second half, the generational shift to HBM4 represents the biggest variable. SK hynix established mass-production capability for HBM4 in February and has begun shipping 12-high HBM4 products for Nvidia's next-generation "Vera Rubin" AI accelerator. The company plans to supply samples of HBM4E (seventh-generation) in the second half, leveraging a 10-nanometer-class sixth-generation process, with full-scale mass production beginning in 2027.

SK hynix maintains a commanding position in the HBM market. LS Securities reported that SK hynix began supplying 12-high HBM4E samples to major customers last month and achieved per-pin data transfer rates of up to 16 Gbps, while continuing to leverage its advanced mass reflow molded underfill technology, which has been proven at scale. Kyobo Securities projects SK hynix will hold an overwhelming share of the HBM3E market and secure more than 60% of the HBM4 market, with the expanding prevalence of long-term agreements providing visibility for reduced earnings volatility and extended cycle duration.

**Overseas investment banks diverge on upgrade pace**

International investment banks maintain a generally positive tone, though with varying conviction. Following first-quarter results, Goldman Sachs raised its second-quarter DRAM price forecast to 50% from 40% and NAND to 45% from 30%. Citi Securities lifted its 2026 annual operating profit forecast, citing surging memory demand for AI inference and increased data generation from AI agents. Nomura projects 2026 operating profit consensus will exceed 250 trillion won, driven by corporate earnings and ROE expansion.

Morgan Stanley, however, has questioned the pace of estimate upgrades. The firm cited decelerating DRAM price increases, stabilizing inventory improvement, and what it characterizes as a peak in earnings-per-share revisions, suggesting memory chipmakers' earnings momentum may have already plateaued. TrendForce data indicates commodity DRAM contract prices are expected to rise in the mid-10% range quarter-over-quarter, a marked deceleration from the 60% increase in the previous quarter. Domestic securities firms counter that concluding a results peak based solely on slowing price increases is premature, arguing that earnings volatility is easing as long-term agreement penetration expands.